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07.25.07
Should Microsoft Buy Red Hat?
 By
Savio Rodrigues
Some background:
1. Matt asked "Why doesn't Oracle buy Red Hat?"
2. I explained why Oracle would not buy Red Hat
3. Luis Villa replied to Matt's question: "Because Red Hat employees would leave en masse."
4. Microsoft announced fiscal 4Q07 growth of 13% on Thursday (or 16% if you only count their true software revenue - which falls into the "Client", "Server & Tools" and "Microsoft Business Division" reporting categories). Microsoft crossed the $50 billion total year revenue mark with the close of fiscal 2007.
5. I compared Red Hat's stock performance over the past year vs. some Traditional software vendors (see below)
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If you're still with me...
Red Hat is growing and executing well. Financial analysts expect Red Hat to hit $517M this year (fiscal 2008, ending Feb. 2008), and $631M in fiscal 2009. At this pace, Red Hat should cross the $1 billion revenue mark in fiscal 2011. Red Hat may well be the gorilla in the Open Source marketplace. But after everything is said and done, that marketplace is tiny in comparison to the total software market. If you believe in the stock market's ability to predict a company's future value, one could argue that Red Hat investors are in a "sit tight" mode right now. At a P/E of 72 and PEG of 1.44 (vs. Google's PE of 45 and PEG of 0.99), Red Hat's stock has likely priced in as much growth and "great news" that we could think of. Few doubt Red Hat's position in the overall OSS market, but some may be waking up and asking whether being #1 in 1.8% of the software market is enough to drive the multiples that Red Hat shares enjoy today.
While both vendors have strong operating system franchises, Red Hat isn't really eating into Microsoft's revenues. IDC predicts that the Linux & Windows markets are growing 26% and 9%, with Unix revenues declining by 3% from 2006-2011. Red Hat's Jboss division adds a JEE portfolio that does compete with .NET as the infrastructure for enterprise applications. But here again, it's very unlikely that Microsoft faces off against JBoss in (m)any customer deals. It's more likely that Microsoft competes against IBM WebSphere, BEA WebLogic or Oracle AS, and JBoss only comes into the picture when the customer has already selected JEE. While there is some overlap, Red Hat is much more complimentary to Microsoft's offerings than we'd like to think.
Continue reading this article.
About the Author:
I am taking a semi-break from IBM life as I return to finish a PhD in Industrial Engineering. I've held roles in market intelligence, strategy and product management. I'm ex-product manager of IBM WAS Community Edition, and blog about enterprise open source topics.
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